Till Örebro universitet

This is an essay about the political development of Iraq after the overthrow of the Baath regime by the coalition forces in 2003. Almost seven years later, the political scene is still characterised by chaos, even though the country entered a new phase with the adoption of democratic thinking and a new openness to the world. The unstable political situation is a product of inter-ethnic conflict and the interference by neighbouring countries. Iraq is up against two formidable tasks – building democracy and building a nation. The essay sets out to explore the prospects of this dual mission.

The essay breaks down into three distinct, theoretically motivated parts or sections. The first part is inspired by O’Donnell & Schmitter’s transition theory and revolves around Iraq’s transition from dictatorship to democracy. The second part sets out to evaluate the development of democracy in Iraq after Saddam Hussein in the light of the seven institutional criteria of polyarchies as identified by Robert Dahl. The third part evaluates Iraq in terms of Arendt Lijphart’s groundbreaking theory about consensus as a pre-condition for democracy in highly divided societies.

The investigation confirms the general picture of the political situation in Iraq as unstable but with one notable exception – the Kurdish region. The constitution testifies to the ambition to turn Iraq into a polyarchy with strong elements of consensual democracy, but the spirit of the constitution is frequently violated by government institutions and individual politicians. The consensual features have in fact served as safety valve for the ethnic and religious minorities of Iraq; but it is an open question whether they will survive the onslaught by Prime Minister Al-Maliki, a recent convert to the Westminster model. The unclear relationship between Islam and democracy also looms large in the background in a country like Iraq and must somehow be resolved by the governing elite.