Till Örebro universitet

oru.seÖrebro universitets publikationer
Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet. Centre for Transport Studies, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
2016 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Reducing uncertainty can still be worthwhile, however, because of the huge amounts of money at stake: a 10% reduction in general uncertainty can increase the realized benefits of a national infrastructure investment plan by nearly 100 million euro (assuming that decisions are based on the CBAs). We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Centre for Transport Studies, KTH , 2016. , s. 18
Serie
CTS Working Paper ; 2016:8
Nyckelord [en]
Cost-benefit analysis, infrastructure investments, uncertainty, robustness
Nationell ämneskategori
Nationalekonomi
Forskningsämne
Nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-50391OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-50391DiVA, id: diva2:930538
Tillgänglig från: 2016-05-24 Skapad: 2016-05-24 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-07-10Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?(787 kB)1585 nedladdningar
Filinformation
Filnamn FULLTEXT02.pdfFilstorlek 787 kBChecksumma SHA-512
851579aea5b9abd9c1905b8558078ed5d697494b5b438a7ffce8b5fd048eb27e73f1241a8fdbe28e6c45bd3efcb13f484843dcaffda99f7c58576b2532f4819d
Typ fulltextMimetyp application/pdf

Person

Thureson, Disa

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Thureson, Disa
Av organisationen
Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet
Nationalekonomi

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Totalt: 1588 nedladdningar
Antalet nedladdningar är summan av nedladdningar för alla fulltexter. Det kan inkludera t.ex tidigare versioner som nu inte längre är tillgängliga.

urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

urn-nbn
Totalt: 387 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf