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Modelling Okun's law: Does non-Gaussianity matter?
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Division of Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8124-328x
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Division of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0682-8584
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Division of Economics, School of Business, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden; National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2023 (English)In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 64, no 5, p. 2183-2213Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we analyse Okun's law-a relation between the change in the unemployment rate and GDP growth-using data from Australia, the euro area, the UK and the USA. More specifically, we assess the relevance of non-Gaussianity when modelling the relation. This is done in a Bayesian VAR framework with stochastic volatility where we allow the different models' error distributions to have heavier-than-Gaussian tails and skewness. Our results indicate that accounting for heavy tails yields improvements over a Gaussian specification in some cases, whereas skewness appears less fruitful. In terms of dynamic effects, a shock to GDP growth has robustly negative effects on the change in the unemployment rate in all four economies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2023. Vol. 64, no 5, p. 2183-2213
Keywords [en]
Bayesian VAR, Heavy tails, GDP growth, Unemployment
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-101716DOI: 10.1007/s00181-022-02309-2ISI: 000860402600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85138986810OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-101716DiVA, id: diva2:1702997
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Örebro UniversityAvailable from: 2022-10-12 Created: 2022-10-12 Last updated: 2023-06-08Bibliographically approved

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Kiss, TamásNguyen, HoangÖsterholm, Pär

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