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Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Unit of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0203-4688
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Unit of Statistics, School of Business, Örebro University, Sweden; Department of Economics and Statistics, School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1395-9427
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Unit of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0682-8584
2023 (English)In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, ISSN 0165-1889, E-ISSN 1879-1743, Vol. 146, article id 104580Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed and heavy tailed. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by extending a vector autoregression (VAR) model to account for more realistic assumptions on the multivariate distribution of macroeconomic variables. We propose a general class of generalized hyperbolic skew Student’s  distribution with stochastic volatility for the innovations in the VAR model that allows us to take into account both skewness and heavy tails. Tools for Bayesian inference and model selection using a Gibbs sampler are provided. In an empirical study, we present evidence of skewness and heavy tails for monthly macroeconomic variables. The analysis also gives a clear message that skewness is a value-added feature to VAR models with heavy tails.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023. Vol. 146, article id 104580
Keywords [en]
Vector autoregression, Skewness and heavy tails, Generalized hyperbolic skew Student’s distribution, Stochastic volatility, Markov chain Monte Carlo
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Economics
Research subject
Statistics; Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-102816DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104580ISI: 000897041400008Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85143844551OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-102816DiVA, id: diva2:1720780
Funder
The Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation, P18-0201 BV18-0018 BFV22-0005Örebro UniversitySwedish Research Council, 2018-05973Available from: 2022-12-20 Created: 2022-12-20 Last updated: 2023-01-11Bibliographically approved

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Karlsson, SuneMazur, StepanNguyen, Hoang

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