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Forecast: Crime with a chance of feeling unsafe: Examining unsafety (crime and fear of crime) within the context of the surrounding environment
Örebro University, School of Behavioural, Social and Legal Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1576-5079
2023 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In environmental criminology, various methods exist to forecast unsafety. Some are more complex than others. To determine their practicality, we must compare the accuracy of simple, transparent, and functional methods with slightly more complex methods and those requiring more data collection.

The overall aim of the current dissertation was to examine the relationship between crime history, environmental and neighborhood characteristics in forecasting unsafety, both crime and fear of crime, in various geographical locations. Study I compared the predictive accuracy of two methods using historical crime exposure and different crime-time-periods for violent and property crimes. Study II compared the predictive accuracy of prior crime, place attributes, ambient population, and community structural and social characteristics for various crime types. Study III examined the relationship between violent and property crime, as well as community structural and social characteristics, and different types of fear of crime.

The findings of the current dissertation suggest that, overall, a one-size-fits-all approach is not effective. Simpler methods are generally comparable to more complex ones in long-term crime forecasting at the micro-level. However, at the neighborhood level, social integration plays a significant role in determining levels of perceived safety and fear of crime.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: Örebro University , 2023. , p. 188
Series
Örebro Studies in Criminology ; 2
Keywords [en]
Hotspot-Mapping, RTM, Micro-Place, Neighborhood, Prediction-Accuracy, Prediction-Efficiency, Violent-Crime, Property-Crime, Perceived-Unsafety, Fear of Crime, Avoidance
National Category
Law and Society
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-109735ISBN: 9789175295305 (print)ISBN: 9789175295312 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-109735DiVA, id: diva2:1812245
Public defence
2023-12-15, Örebro universitet, Långhuset, Hörsal L2, Fakultetsgatan 1, Örebro, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2023-11-15 Created: 2023-11-15 Last updated: 2023-11-27Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Exploring Violent and Property Crime Geographically: A Comparison of the Accuracy and Precision of Kernel Density Estimation and Simple Count
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring Violent and Property Crime Geographically: A Comparison of the Accuracy and Precision of Kernel Density Estimation and Simple Count
2021 (English)In: Nordic Journal of Studies in Policing, E-ISSN 2703-7045, Vol. 8, no 1, p. 1-21Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

There are multiple geographical crime prediction techniques to use and comparing different prediction techniques therefore becomes important. In the current study we compared the accuracy (Predictive Accuracy Index) and precision (Recapture Rate Index) of simply counting crimes: Simple Count with Kernel Density Estimation in the prediction of where people are reported to commit violent crimes (assault and robbery) and property crimes (residential burglary, property damage, theft, vehicle theft and arson), geographically. These predictions were done using a different number of years into the future and based on a different number of years combined to do the crime prediction, in a large Swedish municipality. The Simple Count technique performed quite well in comparison to simple Kernel Density Estimation no matter what crime was being predicted, making us conclude that it may not be necessary to use the more complex method of Kernel Density Estimation to predict where people are reported to commit crime geographically.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Universitetsforlaget, 2021
Keywords
Hotspot Mapping, Predictive Accuracy Index, Recapture Rate Index, Simple Count, Kernel Density Estimation
National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-94809 (URN)10.18261/issn.2703-7045-2021-01-02 (DOI)2-s2.0-85106300358 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-10-06 Created: 2021-10-06 Last updated: 2023-11-23Bibliographically approved
2. Exploring Hotspots of Violent and Property Crime in Malmö, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring Hotspots of Violent and Property Crime in Malmö, Sweden
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Law and Society
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-109863 (URN)
Available from: 2023-11-23 Created: 2023-11-23 Last updated: 2023-11-23Bibliographically approved
3. Perceived Unsafety and Fear of Crime: The Role of Violent and Property Crime, Neighborhood Characteristics, and Prior Perceived Unsafety and Fear of Crime
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Perceived Unsafety and Fear of Crime: The Role of Violent and Property Crime, Neighborhood Characteristics, and Prior Perceived Unsafety and Fear of Crime
2022 (English)In: Deviant behavior, ISSN 0163-9625, E-ISSN 1521-0456, Vol. 43, no 11, p. 1347-1365Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Perceived unsafety, fear of crime, and avoidance were studied in relation to different types of crime, crime in different time perspectives, concentrated disadvantage, collective efficacy, urbanity, age structure, and neighborhood disorder. Four data sources were used on a large Swedish city; a community survey from 2012 and 2015 among residents, census data on socio-demographics, police data on reported violent (assault and robbery in the public environment), and property crimes (arson, property damage, theft, vehicle theft, and residential burglary) and geographical information on local bus stops and annual passengers visiting these bus stops. Collective efficacy primarily, but also concentrated disadvantage, was strongly related to perceived unsafety, across 102 neighborhoods. Collective efficacy was strongly related to fear of crime. It was not viable to relate the neighborhood variables with avoidance, however. Fear of specific violent crimes was different from fear of specific property crimes and should for future reference be examined separately. Crime, visible disorder, urbanity, and age structure do not seem as important.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2022
Keywords
perceived unsafety, fear of crime, avoidance, violent crime, property crime, neighborhood variables
National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-94811 (URN)10.1080/01639625.2021.1982657 (DOI)000702674400001 ()2-s2.0-85116314497 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-10-06 Created: 2021-10-06 Last updated: 2023-11-23Bibliographically approved

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Camacho Doyle, Maria

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