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Exploring futures through science fiction: A scenario-based PESTLE analysis of award-winning SF novels
School of Business, University of Skövde, Skövde, Sweden.
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9448-2359
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5658-8868
2025 (English)In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 172, article id 103647Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article extends the exploration of potential futures as envisioned in science fiction (SF) literature by analyzing how emerging trends are portrayed through a structured analytical framework. Specifically, it examines award-winning SF novels, focusing on political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) dimensions as imagined by prominent authors within the genre. Thus, the purpose of the article is to provide an overview of emerging trends and tendencies within imagined futures as depicted in acclaimed SF literature, framed through the lens of PESTLE analysis. To this end, four future scenarios were extrapolated from a selection of 42 novels that have either won or been nominated for major SF awards-the Nebula and the Hugo. These scenarios are: Solar System Expansion, Cyber High-Tech Future, Post-Contraction Society, and Dystopian Future. Each scenario is assessed according to its political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental characteristics.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 172, article id 103647
Keywords [en]
Science fiction, SF, Future scenarios, Scenario building, PESTLE
National Category
Development Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-122566DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103647ISI: 001525823900001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-122566DiVA, id: diva2:1986220
Available from: 2025-07-30 Created: 2025-07-30 Last updated: 2025-07-30Bibliographically approved

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Carlborg, PerHasche, Nina

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