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Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills, and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. The Ratio Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. The Ratio Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0149-9598
The Ratio Institute, Stockholm, Sweden; Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
2025 (English)In: Research Policy, ISSN 0048-7333, E-ISSN 1873-7625, Vol. 54, no 8, article id 105285Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper examines how new technologies are linked to changes in the content of work and individual wages. As a first step, it documents novel facts on task and skill changes within occupations over the past two decades in Germany. We furthermore reveal a distinct relationship between ex-ante occupational work content and ex-post exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation (robots). Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements compared to workers in occupations exposed to robots, suggesting that robots and AI are substitutes for different activities and skills. We also document that changes in the task and skill content of occupations is related to ex-ante exposure to technologies. Finally, the study uses individual labour market biographies to investigate the relationship between AI and wages. By exploring the dynamic influence of AI exposure on individuals over time, the study uncovers positive associations with wages, with nuanced variations across occupational groups, thereby shedding further light on the substitutability and augmentability of AI.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 54, no 8, article id 105285
Keywords [en]
Artificial intelligence technologies, Task content, Skills, Wages
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-122591DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2025.105285ISI: 001529928500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105009940194OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-122591DiVA, id: diva2:1986554
Funder
The Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation, P19-0234
Note

Lodefalk and Engberg acknowledge financial support from Ratio, Lodefalk from the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius (grant P19-0234) and Torsten Söderberg Foundations (grant E46/21) , and Koch and Schroeder from the Carlsberg Foundation, Denmark.

Available from: 2025-08-01 Created: 2025-08-01 Last updated: 2026-03-20Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The Impact of AI on the Labour Market: Essays on Transformative Technology, Occupations, and Firms
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Impact of AI on the Labour Market: Essays on Transformative Technology, Occupations, and Firms
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The topic of this thesis is the economics of transformative technology, with the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labour market as the primary focus.

Analysing German data, Essay I shows that occupational AI exposure was associated with wage gains, and an increased focus on knowledge-intensive tasks. There is a clear contrast between the types of work that are exposed to AI, versus robotics.

Essay II finds that AI exposure is associated with AI adoption and increased labour demand, as measured by job vacancy postings, in Swedish establishments/workplaces.

Essay III develops a novel measure of occupational AI exposure, called Dynamic AI Occupational Exposure (DAIOE). AI exposure is shown to be associated with upskilling at the firm level in Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal.

Essay IV analyses the labour market implications of the growing social and verbal capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Analysis of occupational data from O*NET and job ads provides a map of the most important types of social work tasks. Among social tasks, verbal communication tasks have the strongest association with occupational exposure to LLMs.

Essay V is about the impact of venture capital (VC) on start-up firms. Investment from both private and governmental VCs is found to increase sales with a 2-3 year delay, driven primarily by efficiency gains, and to some extent, capital investment. Governmental VCs are more likely to make follow-on investments in non-growing firms.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: Örebro University, 2026. p. 41
Series
Örebro Studies in Economics, ISSN 1651-8896 ; 50
Keywords
Artificial intelligence, Technology, Labour market, Entrepreneurship
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-127710 (URN)9789175297552 (ISBN)9789175297569 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-04-22, Örebro universitet, Forumhuset, Hörsal F, Fakultetsgatan 1, Örebro, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-03-03 Created: 2026-03-03 Last updated: 2026-03-24Bibliographically approved

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Engberg, ErikLodefalk, Magnus

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