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AI Unboxed and Jobs: A Novel Measure and Firm-Level Evidence from Three Countries
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
Kiel University, Germany; IZA.
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0149-9598
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1488-4703
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2024 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We unbox developments in artificial intelligence (AI) to estimate how exposure to these developments affect firm-level labour demand, using detailed register data from Denmark, Portugal and Sweden over two decades. Based on data on AI capabilities and occupational work content, we develop and validate a time-variant measure for occupational exposure to AI across subdomains of AI, such as language modelling. According to the model, white collar occupations are most exposed to AI, and especially white collar work that entails relatively little social interaction. We illustrate its usefulness by applying it to near-universal data on firms and individuals from Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal, and estimating firm labour demand regressions. We find a positive (negative) association between AI exposure and labour demand for high-skilled white (blue) collar work. Overall, there is an up-skilling effect, with the share of white-collar to blue collar workers increasing with AI exposure. Exposure to AI within the subdomains of image and language are positively (negatively) linked to demand for high-skilled white collar (blue collar) work, whereas other AI-areas are heterogeneously linked to groups of workers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bonn: IZA Institute of Labor Economics , 2024. , p. 43
Series
IZA Discussion Paper Series, E-ISSN 2365-9793 ; 16717
Keywords [en]
artificial intelligence, labour demand, multi-country firm-level evidence
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-128059OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-128059DiVA, id: diva2:2047386
Available from: 2026-03-20 Created: 2026-03-20 Last updated: 2026-03-20Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The Impact of AI on the Labour Market: Essays on Transformative Technology, Occupations, and Firms
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Impact of AI on the Labour Market: Essays on Transformative Technology, Occupations, and Firms
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The topic of this thesis is the economics of transformative technology, with the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labour market as the primary focus.

Analysing German data, Essay I shows that occupational AI exposure was associated with wage gains, and an increased focus on knowledge-intensive tasks. There is a clear contrast between the types of work that are exposed to AI, versus robotics.

Essay II finds that AI exposure is associated with AI adoption and increased labour demand, as measured by job vacancy postings, in Swedish establishments/workplaces.

Essay III develops a novel measure of occupational AI exposure, called Dynamic AI Occupational Exposure (DAIOE). AI exposure is shown to be associated with upskilling at the firm level in Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal.

Essay IV analyses the labour market implications of the growing social and verbal capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Analysis of occupational data from O*NET and job ads provides a map of the most important types of social work tasks. Among social tasks, verbal communication tasks have the strongest association with occupational exposure to LLMs.

Essay V is about the impact of venture capital (VC) on start-up firms. Investment from both private and governmental VCs is found to increase sales with a 2-3 year delay, driven primarily by efficiency gains, and to some extent, capital investment. Governmental VCs are more likely to make follow-on investments in non-growing firms.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: Örebro University, 2026. p. 41
Series
Örebro Studies in Economics, ISSN 1651-8896 ; 50
Keywords
Artificial intelligence, Technology, Labour market, Entrepreneurship
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-127710 (URN)9789175297552 (ISBN)9789175297569 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-04-22, Örebro universitet, Forumhuset, Hörsal F, Fakultetsgatan 1, Örebro, 13:15 (English)
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Supervisors
Available from: 2026-03-03 Created: 2026-03-03 Last updated: 2026-03-24Bibliographically approved

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Engberg, ErikLodefalk, MagnusJaved, FarrukhLängkvist, MartinKyvik Nordås, HildegunnTang, Aili

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