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On the Stability of Macroeconomic Relationships in Australia
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0203-4688
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. New South Wales Treasury, Sydney, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2026 (English)In: Australian Economic Review, ISSN 0004-9018, E-ISSN 1467-8462Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we analyse whether two key macroeconomic relationships in Australia-Okun's law and the Phillips curve-have been stable over time. This is done by estimating hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models using quarterly data from 1978 to 2024. Model comparison based on marginal likelihoods indicates that Okun's law has been stable, whereas the Phillips curve has not. Using the preferred specification of the BVAR for the unemployment rate and inflation, we also calculate trend values for both variables. The model's trend unemployment rate at the end of the sample is approximately 5%; estimated trend inflation at the same point in time is close to the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2026.
Keywords [en]
Bayesian VAR, GDP growth, inflation, time-varying parameters, unemployment
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-128640DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70060ISI: 001752246400001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-128640DiVA, id: diva2:2057401
Available from: 2026-05-05 Created: 2026-05-05 Last updated: 2026-05-05Bibliographically approved

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Karlsson, SuneÖsterholm, Pär

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